Donald Trump’s approval rating is rising. The Democratic advantage on survey questions about party preference for control of Congress is vanishing. Liberal anxiety about the fate of the midterms — and I would venture, the country itself — is rising.
To all this, I say: Calm down.
Not relax. Not rest easy. Not coast. But stay the course and don’t panic. Work hard, message well and bring your passion — and a few neighbors and friends — to the polls in November.
If voters do that, as they have already done in special elections, signs are positive for a major realignment in Washington.
As a CNN analysis last month said: “These results suggest that the Republican Party is in trouble heading into the midterm elections. If past trends hold, it is possible Democrats could see a double- digit swing in the average House district in 2018 compared with past elections.”
The analysis continued: “The reason is fairly clear: The Democrats are outperforming their baseline far more often than they are underperforming it. The average swing across all elections has been +13 Democratic, signaling a national political environment is 13 points in the Democrats’ direction.”
The report concluded: “The last time the average shift from the partisan baseline in federal elections looked anything like this cycle was in 2006. That year Democrats won the national House vote by eight percentage points and had net gain of 30 House seats. Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take back the House this November. Like 2006, we shouldn’t expect Democrats to win the national House vote by nearly as much as they over-performed in the special elections.”
The much-hyped “blue wave” may very well manifest. This, to me, is simply about the partisan reality of the mood of the country and the dictates of historical precedent.
But what happens this November, and indeed in November 2020, is about something more than an affinity for Democratic candidates. For me, those candidate enlistees in the resistance army are agents of a greater correction.
My vision of our forthcoming election is rooted not simply in partisan politics but in a more profound sense of morality, righteousness and patriotism. That is a higher purpose. And it doesn’t hinge on Trump’s absolute failure, his penchant for self-immolation or his ineptitude posing as competence.
The truth is, no presidency is a complete failure, because the machinery of America wants it to succeed. That machinery will make the